Thanks! I'm hoping that we'll get a good idea what point in time the top is likely. Perhaps a few weeks before the top, the predicted critical date should stabilize and that would indicate an elevated risk. There is also a small chance the top comes in and we stabilize around that value rather than a large correction. I'm exploring some other analysis as a sanity check, which I may include in future newsletters (sent out Saturdays).
Thanks! I'm hoping that we'll get a good idea what point in time the top is likely. Perhaps a few weeks before the top, the predicted critical date should stabilize and that would indicate an elevated risk. There is also a small chance the top comes in and we stabilize around that value rather than a large correction. I'm exploring some other analysis as a sanity check, which I may include in future newsletters (sent out Saturdays).